c) Futures Kit

FUTURES KIT
BY DOUGLAS SPENCER

ILLUSTRATED BY PETE DONALDSON

FUTURES KIT
Copyright c 1981 by Douglas Spencer
All rights reserved

No part of this kit may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, without permission in writing from the author.

ISBN 0-919970-07-9

All About Us Publishing
P. O. Box 1985
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1P 5R5

Printed in Canada by Gatineau Graphics, Ottawa
Editor, Seymour Trieger

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INTRODUCTION

Futures Kit encourages participants to examine and shape possible, probable, and preferable futures.

Future Scenario cards outline thirteen descriptions of our world as it may develop over the next twenty, one hundred, or five-hundred years.

Lifestyles Options cards raise questions about the effects each kind of world will have on our patterns of living.

Prediction cards forecast sixty-four events, discoveries, and inventions which may produce major changes in our lives. Each card indicates a prediction, its date, its source, and the year it was made. The Possible Consequences section compels us to consider the prediction's impact on each scenario.

The skills developed through this kit touch many subject areas including Science, Language Arts, History, and Library Arts. Below are a few applications of the Futures Kit:

1. Science - a valuable tool in demonstrating the role of scientific discoveries and inventions in shaping our future.

2. Language Arts - an important device for teaching basic research skills: vocabulary development, reading compensation, decision-making, cause and effect relationships, drawing conclusions, and so forth.

3. History - an important link in understanding the chain of past and current events affecting individual and social behaviour.

4. Library Arts - a useful learning centre activity.

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INSTRUCTIONS

1. Choose a Future Scenario card. See the Index. Research, record, and discuss the meaning of each italicized word or expression.

2. Read and discuss the Future Scenario. Record a description of the scenario in your own words.

3. Choose the corresponding Lifestyle Options card. Record and discuss the answers to the Lifestyle Options questions.

4. Choose a Prediction card. See the Index. Research, record, and discuss the meaning of any italicized words of expressions.

5. Read and discuss the Prediction. Rate the prediction's impact or importance on a scale from 1 to 5 (where 1 is very positive and 5 is very negative).

6. Record and discuss the Possible Consequences of each prediction becoming true in accordance with the scenario being examined. Refer to the inverted questions for suggestions.

7. Repeat steps (4), (5), and (6).

8. Choose another Future Scenario card and repeat the step above as desired.

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INDEX
Future Scenarios/Life Options* (1980-2000)

A. All Goes Well ......................................................8 and 9

B. Not So Great................................................... 10 and 11

C. Pretty Bad........................................................12 and 13

D. New Directions.................................................14 and 15

E. Orwellian World................................................16 and 17

F. New Affluence................................................. 18 and 19

G. Conserver Society............................................ 20 and 21

H. Towards Chaos..................................... 22 and 23

I. Co-operative Society................................24 and 25

J. Self-help Society......................................26 and 27

K. The Way You See It................................28 and 29

L. Individual Perspective.............................31 and 32

M. Towards Perfection...........................33, 34 and 35

Future Scenarios A to J are based on the report Alternative Futures for Environmental Policy Planning: 1975-2000 from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

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Predictions/Possible Consequences

1. Weather Forecasts (1980).................................36
2. Teaching Machines (1980).................................37
3. Contraceptives (1980).......................................38
4. Instant Translation (1980)................................ 39
5. Cigarettes (1980).............................................40
6. Female Employment (1980)..............................41
7. SerumHepatitis(1980).......................................42
8. Nuclear Explosions (1980)..................................43
9. College Graduates (1980).................................44
10. OPEC (1980)...................................................45
11. Computer Terminals (1981)..............................46
12. Medical Services ((1981)..................................47
13. Pay Cable TV (1982)........................................48
14. Nuclear Waste (1984)......................................49
15. Human Pigmentation (1985)............................50
16. Synthetic Blood (1985)................................... 51

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17. Pain Control (1985)..........................................52
18. Weight Control (1985)..................................... 53
19. Senility (1985).................................................54
20. Government Employment (1985)......................55
21. Computer Repairs (1989).................................56
22. Artificial Hands (1989).................................... 57
23. Artificial Eyesight (1990)..................................58
24. Nonpolluting Vehicles (1990)............................59
25. Transplants (1990)...........................................60
26. Venereal Diseases (1990)................................ 61
27. Social Drugs (1990).........................................62
28. Mechanical Humans (1991)..............................63
29. 3-D Television (1992)......................................64
30. Perception (1992)............................................65
31. Sleep (1992)...................................................66
32. Household Robots (1992)................................67

Predictions/Possible Consequences

33. Earthquakes (1994).........................................68
34. Solar Power (1998)..........................................69
35. Radio Stimulation (2000)..................................70
36. Human Intelligence (2000)...............................71
37. Human Cloning (2000).....................................72
38. Criminal Behaviour (2000)................................73
39. Outdoor Recreation (2000)...............................74
40. Lasers (2000)..................................................75
41. Plutonium (2000).............................................76
42. Newspapers (2005)..........................................77
43.Mental Retardation (2010).................................78
44. Fish Farming (2012).........................................79
45. Replacement Organs (2015).............................80
46. Intelligent Animals (2020)............................... 81
47. Man-made Islands (2020)................................82
48. Guaranteed Income (2024)..............................83

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49. External Farming (2024)...................................84
50. Extraterrestrial Contact (2030)..........................85
51. Hovercraft (2050)............................................86
52. Water Pollution (2050).....................................87
53. Suspended Animation (2050)............................88
54. Space-time Distortion (2060)............................89
55. Mechanical Educator (2060).............................90
56. Gravity Control (2063)......................................91
57. Artificial Life (2070)..........................................92
58. Light-speeds (2075).........................................93
59. Machine Intelligence (2080).............................94
60. Matter Transmitter (2090)................................95
61. Replicator (2090)............................................96
62. Extraterrestrials (2100)....................................97
63. World Brain (2100)..........................................98
64. Immortality (2100)..........................................99

A. FUTURE SCENARIO: All Goes Well (1980-2000)

Our leaders appeared to have the answers most of the world's problems. There was worldwide co-operation between countries in tackling pollution, over-population, political instability poverty, and shortages of resources.

There was plenty of energy, food, and a favourable climate. Many more people moved to the cities where housing programs, better sewage systems, and improved health, fire, and police protection largely solve problems of crowding and pollution.

Satellite cities sprung up around major cities. Apartment style living replaced the single detached home.

The nuclear familycotinued to be the norm. A low birthrate made child care and education less important than health and welfare or the old.

The retirement age rose to seventy and medicine for the elderly greatly improved Lifetime employment with the same company became popular.

A. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: All Goes Well (1980-2000)

1. Is this future possible? Why or why not?

2. Should we depend on our leaders to solve the world's problems? Explain.

3. What would you do personally to help fight pollution, poverty, and shortages of resources in the 80's and 90's?

4. Is worldwide co-operation between countries in solving problems likely? Explain.

5. Is an abundance of energy for the 80's possible? Explain

6. Would you agree to pay higher taxes to support housing programs, better sewage systems, and improved health, fire, and police protection?
Why or why not?

7. Would you live in a city, the country, or a satellite city in the 90's? Why?

8. By 2000, do you expect to be ... married or single? ... with or without children? ... living in an apartment or a single home? ... employed by only one company for your lifetime? Explain in detail.

9. Would you consider extending your life through advanced medicine? Would yo consider geriatric euthanasia? Why or why not?

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B. FUTURE SCENARIO: Not So Great (1980-2000)

A major depression occurred in the 1980's. This was brought on by power outages, transportation breakdowns, resource and food shortages, and bad weather.

Crime, family breakdown, drug abuse, alcoholism, cultism, and suicide became more common. Three social groups resulted.

The Survivors stole, destroyed or squatted in abandoned buildings, begged, pilfered, and accepted the barest conditions of survival.

The Frugals, concerned with conservation, organized small productive activities such as backyard gardening, community services, and repair and maintenace programs to replace goverment incompetence.

There was moderae economic recovery in the 1990's due to lower expectations.

The new Achievers or consumers, although able to hold on to power, had to make sacrifices. They helped the Survivors out of a need for self-protection and as an alternative to police force.

B. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Not So Great (1980-2000)

1. What actions might we take now to prevent a depressin from occurring?

2. Would our institutins (eg. school system, legal system, etc) survive such a future? Explain.

3. How would your life as a civil servant, a police officer, a clergyman, or a criminal be affected by crime, family breakdown, drug abuse, alcoholism, cultism, and suicide? Explain in detail.

4. Which of the following groups would your lifestyle most closely resemble: Survivors, Frugals, or Achievers? Why?

5. If you were a Survivor describe how you would acquire your food, shelter, and clothing. How dould you justify any crimes you might have to commit?

6. If you were a Frugal, what productive activities would you become involved in?

7. Would you return to an Achiever lifestyle if conditins improved by 2000? Why or why not?

8. What events would dramatically alter such a future? Explain.

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C. FUTURE SCENARIO: Pretty Bad (1980-2000)

Society almost collapsed during the energy bust of the mid-1980's.

Our high consumption lifestyle was discontinued; the nuclear energy program was cancelled due to waste disposal problems and nuclear catastrophe; and industry nearly collapsed. Bad climate and food shortages almost led to social chaos.

Democracy declined in the 90's. Government became more authoritarian but remained ineffective.

The Survivors, poor and destitue, made up one third of the total population. They wre often affected by family breakdown, crime, drug addiction,and alcoholism.

By 2000, the Frugals, living lives without luxury, formed the largest social group.

C. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Pretty Bad (1980-2000)

1. Is this future probable? Explain.

2. How might an energy bus be prevented?

3. How likely is a cancellation of the nuclear energy program? Explain.

4. Would you support greater government authority and less democracy considering the problems the government had to face in the 1990's? Why or why not?

5 Which of the two major lifestyle groups would you belong to: the Survivors or the Frugals? Why?

6. If you were a Frugal, how wold you deal with increasing family breakdown, crime, drug addiction, and alcoholism?

7. Discuss the pros and cons of a society dominated by the Frugals.

8. Would an Achiever survive in such a future? Why or why not?

9. If you were a candidate in an election in the mid-1990's, what would be your party's platform?

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D. FUTURE SCENARIO: New Direction (1980-2000)

Our leaders attempted to control inflation and unemployment by placing controls on energy use and the overall consumption lifestyle. A need for new energy sources encouraged co-operation between nations.

The Frugals and communal groups who were self-reliant, ingenious, and tolerant, became very influential. A system of self-government communities developed along side the traditional system. A variety of lifestyle became visible within the communities. Emphasis was placed on co-operation.

By 2000, the old traditional system appeared at an end. The new society accepted environmentally appropriate technology, small is beautiful, self-fulfilling goals.

D. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: New Directions (1980-2000)

1. Would you prefer this future? Why or why not?

2. What are some causes of inflation?

3. Would you support government controls on energy use and overall consumption? Explain in detail.

4. Would you support co-operation between nations in pursuing solutions to energy problems? Why or why not?

5. Would you become part of the new self-governing communities or remain a supporter of the old traditional system? Why?

6. Describe in detail your lifestyle activities over a typical work day and a leisure day in 1990.

7. If you were a leader in the old system, how would you react to the development of the new self-governing system? Explain.

8. Who would be more affeted by a change from the old traditional system to he new self-governing system? How would they be affected?

9. How probable is this future? Explain.

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E. FUTURE SCENARIO: Orwellian World (1980-2000)

Big business and big government led our society into the 1980's despite energy shortages, a low standard of living, political terrorism, and poor weather.

Society was basically permissive, welfare-minded, and materialistic.

The private automobile and private home ownership declined in favour of public transportation and apartment living. Nationalism, the nuclear family, adult education, and the work-pay system remained the norm. Terrorism, assassination, kidnapping, sabotage, fraud, police brutality, military cous, crop destruction, strikes, and low-level international conflicts became more common.

By the 90's, there was a public demand for law and order. The government provided the order in return to greater control over scientific activities and public participation. Controls over income and wealth differences were reduced.

By 2000, the system aided by good weather and energy discoveries survived but was very authoritarian.

E. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Orwellian World (1980-2000)

1. Is this future possible? Why or why not?

2. If you wee a business or government leader, how would you justify severe control over society despite a low standard of living?

3. Compare everyday lifestyles of the 1980's and the 1990's.

4. List the effects of the change from private automobile and private home ownership to pubic transportation and apartment living.

5. How would an increase in terrorism, assassination, kidnapping, sabotage, fraud, police brutality, military coups, crop destruction, strikes, and low-level international conflicts affect your own lifestyle and society in general?

6. Would you support a candidate for greater social order and less democracy in an election in the mid-1990's? Why or why not?

7. Could law and order be restored by 2000 without reducing democratic rights? Explain.

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F. FUTURE SCENARIO: New Affluence (1980-2000)

Society faced a deep recession in the mid-80's. New energy technologies and a favourable climate, however, brought on great economic growth by the end of the decade.

The Frugals declined in number as individual wealth became great. There appeared to be no limits to growth. The affluence and leisure even spread to small undeveloped nations. By 1990, the Achievers formed the largest lifestyle group in a society where hard work and ambition were the norm.

Lifestyles became very experimental towars 2000. Some people pursued very creative lifestyles on one hand, while others were involved with meaningless crime, alcholism, drug addiction, cultism, superstitution, boredom, mental illness, and suicide.

Government concern prompted studies in genetic engineering, psychological and psychochemical ways of controlling behaviour.

Large corporations dominated the government and had great control over people's lives.

F. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: New Affluence (1980-2000)

1. Is this future preferable? Explain.

2. How does a recession compare with a depression?

3. How probable is the discovery if new energy technologies (eg. coal gasification, safe nuclear power, wood heat, solar and geothermal advances, etc.) by the mid-80's? Explain.

4. How would new energy technologies affect transportation methods, industrial development, the cost of oil, and the biosphere? Describe in detail.

5. Would you completely return to an Achiever lifestyle with the advancements in energy technologies or retain some of the was of the Frugal lifestyle? Explain.

6. How would sudden affluence effect the nations which were traditionally poor?

7. Describe lifestyle experiments you would pursue in the affluent 90's.

8. List ways your life in the 90's would be affected by meaningless crime, alcoholism, drug addiction, cultism, superstitution, boredom, mental illness, suicide, and corporations.

9. Would you support a government which undertook studies in genetic engineering psychological and psychochemical controls? Why or why not?

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G. FUTURE SCENARIO: Conserver Society (1980-2000)

Society's misuse of energy and food, monetary, diplomatic, and military crises added to the recession of the early 1980's.

Scientific discoveries of new nonnuclear energy technologies (eg. goal gasification and oil shale processing) stimulted industry. Co-operation between nations improved. Society quickly moved back to the Achiever lifestyle of consuming.

Scientists made us more aware of limits of growth and the dangers of pollution. By 2000, society became nonwasteful, nonpolluting, and dedicated to slow growth.

North American trends which spread worldwide included: the nuclear family with few children, a low birthrate, urbanization, well-planned satellite cities, apartment living with community workshops and municipal gardens.

G LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Conserver Society (1980-2000)

1. Is this future likely? Explain.

2. List ways today's society misuses energy. How does this misuse add to a continued recession into the 1980's? What can we do now to prevent a futher recession?

3. Are new energy technologies probable by the mid-80's? Why or why not?

4. Explain how new energy technologies would bring on greater co-operation between nations.

5. Discuss the pros and cons of a world run by the scientific community.

6. By 2000, do you expect to be ... married or single? ... living in a city, the country, or a satellite city? ... living in an apartment, a single detached home, or a townhouse? Explain in detail.

7. Are energy resources important to your lifestyle of the future? Explain.

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H. FUTURE SCENARIO: Towards Chaos (1980-2000)

The government introduced strict controls (higher taxes) in the 1980's to hold the system together until new energy technologies could be developed.

Frugal values were adopted by many Achievers (consumers). People accepted employment at low wages and developed alternative lifestyles in an attempt to escape government restrictions.

Survivors hustled, black-marketed, and tried to beat the system.

Bad weather and food shortages in the 90's forced the government to drop its controls on fuel. Authority broke down. Disagreements broke out between nations. Communities became self-centred.

Society no longer believed in science and technology.

H. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Towards Chaos (1980-2000)

1. What decisions might we make now to prevent such a future from occurring?

2. Explain why you would support or not support the following government controls in the 1990's: higher energy costs, mass advertising urging consumer conservation, rationing energy use, or allowing consumers to exercise self-control over their use of energy.

3. Considering the poor energy situation, which of the following values would you adopt: Frugal, Survivor, or Achiever? Would you accept employment at low wages? Explain.

4. If by the 90's you retained Achiever values, how would you regard the Frugal and Achiever lifestyles? Why?

5. How would you deal with the breakdown of authority in the 90's if you were ... a government leader? ... a Survivor? ... a scientist? ... a religious leader? ... a film-maker? ... a businessperson? ... a homemaker? ... a parent? ... a teacher?

6. What would your attitude be towards science and technology by 2000? Why?

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I. FUTURE SCENARIO: Co-operative Society (1980-2000)

A worldwide recession due to energy shortages continued into the 1980's. The situation was eased by government adoption of limited growth and public adoption of Frugal values.

Nationalism declined, the seas were internationalized, and prospects for an actual world government seemed possible.

A variety of lifestyles developed centered around various forms of marriage, family, dress, diet, rituals, architecture, literature, and entertainment.

Frugals and Achievers shared several ideas including the principle of human dignity, awareness of inite resources, preservation of the biosphere, peace, law and order. The Frugals, however, believed in economic growth based on quality rather than quantity.

Good weather in the 90's stimulated a back-to-the-land movement. People worked in co-operative or communal groups.

Towards 2000, people were moving back to the consumer ideal.

I. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Co-operative Society (1990-2000)

1. Is this future possible? Explain.

2. What are some causes of a recession?

3. How would you react to a government policy of limited growth if you were ... a business people? ... a civil servant? ... a farmer? ... a government leader? ... a scientist? ... a parent? ... a teacher? Explain in detail.

4. How probable is the creation of a world government under the conditions described in the scenario?

5. Describew your lifestyle in the 90's under the following headings: marriage, family, dress, diet, rituals, architecture, literature, and entertainment.

6. Why would the Frugals and Achievers have similar viewpoints in the 1990's?

7. Would you move to a farming community considering the good weather in the 90's? Why or why not?

8. With minor economic improvements by 2000, would you consider returning to an Achiever lifestyle? Why or why not?

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J. FUTURE SCENARIO: Self-help Society (1980-2000)

The traditional system with limitless growth declined in the early 80's.

Nationalism remained strong although international co-operation continued to be important.

People became very active in the mid-90's. Some became self-sufficient. Some demanded a greater voice in the management of the economy. Others questioned the judgements of experts.

The Achievers declined as a lifestyle group. Urbanization declined. Small towns and farm communities became popular.

Frugals created democratic industries and services. Others formed communal agricultural collectives. Although there was experimentation with the family the extended family remained the norm.

Suvival with self-respect was more important that affluence. By 2000, people saw the need for zero energy growth.

J. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Self-help Society (1980-2000)

1. Is this future preferable? Explain.

2. Why would nationalism decline in the 80's?

3. Describe ways you would be self-sufficient and critical of experts in the 1990's?

4. Would you live in a city, a small town, or a farm community? Why?

5. Would you prefer to live alone, in a nuclear family, or in an extended family? Why?

6. If you were a Frugal, what democratic industry or service would you become involved in? Describe in detail.

7. How would you be affected by zero energy growth if you were ... a farmer? ... a gas station attendant? ... a waitress? ... a prison guard? ... a mailperson? ... a doctor? ... an army officer? ... a funeral director? ... a hairstylist? Select any three and explain in detail.

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K. FUTURE SCENARIO: The Way You See It (1980-2000)

Develop, illustrate, and record three detailed future scenarios (1980-2000) of your own. Make you first scenario possible, your second scenario probable, and your third scenario preferable. Use the previous scenarios as a guide.

K. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: The Way You See It (1980-2000)

1. Is your preferable future scenario possible? Explain.

2. What problems would the peole in your future scenarios have to contend with? How might they solve them?

3. Describe the social groups which would exist in your future scenarios?

4. In accordance withy your probable future scenario, describe a typical day in your life.

5. Compare the 90's decade of your probable future scenarios with the 90's decade of your preferable future scenario.

6. What current events might alter, prevent, or ensure your probable future scenario from occurring?

7. What role does science and technology play in your preferable future scenario?

8. Describe the political, economic, and social structures which would exist in your possible future scenario.

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L. FUTURE SCENARIO: Individual Perspective (1980-2070)
The Life of J. Smith*

1980: Born in Toronto to a single mother.

1981: Attended school.

1990: Participated in an educational travel program. Studied languages and cultures of countries in southeast Asia.

1992: Returned to North America and continued schooling.

1994: Participated in a co-op education program apprenticing as a computer programmer, photographer, and veterinarian.

1996: Resumed regular schooling specializing in computer technology.

1997: Studied the computer technology of Japan via a video link up.

1999: Employed as a computer programmer. Lived in a commune with five others.

2004: Moved to New York City. Worked as a free-lance photographer. Lived with two others in an open marriage arrangement.

*based on the TAP Report (1974) by the Institute of Life Insurance's Trend Analysis Program.

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L. FUTURE SCENARIO: Individual Perspective (1980-2070)
The Life of J. Smith* (continued)

2010: Moved again and married a single divorced parent with a child of ten years.

2012: Took a leave of absence with family to study animal life in Australia via video link up.

2015: Divorced spouse and lived alone.

2020: Formed an economic and sexual relationship with three others.

2025: Travelled to Australia to teach photography.

2030: Returned to North America to study veterinary medicine.

2033: Remarried.

2040: Move to San Francisco with spouse to practice veterinary medicine.

2065: Taught computer technology at an adult education centre.

2075: Died of sudden lung failure.

L. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Individual Perspective (1980-2000)

1. Using The Life of J. Smith as a guide, record a detailed individual future scenario of your life from birth to death.

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M. FUTURE SCENARIO: Towards Perfection (2430)*

Over the vast continental buildings some five trillion human being placidly slept; some two trillion human beings placidly ate; half a trillion carefully made love. Other trillions talked without heat, or tended the computers quietly, or ran the vehicles, or studied the machinery, or organized the microfilm libraries, or amused their fellows. Trillions went to sleep; trillions woke up; and the routine never varied.

The machinery worked, tested itslelf, repaired itself. The plankton soup of the planetary ocean basked under the sun and the cells divided, while dredges endlessly scooped them up and dried them and by the millions of tons transferred them to conveyors and conduits that brought them to every corner of the endless buildings.

And in every corner of the buildings human wastes were gathered and irradiated and dried, and hum corpses were ground and treated and dried and endlessly the residue was brought back to the ocean. And for hourse, while all this was going on, as it had gone on for decades, and might be doomed to go on for millennia, Cranwitz fed his little creatures a last time...

He counted them over, all of them--the last living things on Earth that were neither humans nor food for humans--and then he seared the soil in which the plants grew and killed them. He flooded the cates and rooms in which the animals moved with appropriate vapors, and they moved no more and soon they lived no more.

The last of them was gone and now between mankind an perfection here was only Cranwitz, whose thoughts still rebelliously departed from the norm. But for Cranwitz there were also vapors, and didn't want to live.

*excerpt from 2430 A. D. by Issac Asimov

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M. FUTURE SCENARIO: Towards Perfection (2430)* (continued)

And, after that, there was really perfection, for over all the Earth, through all its fifteen trillion inhabitants and over all it's twenty billion tons of human brain, there was (with Cranwitz gone) not one unsettling thought, not one unusual idea, to disturb the universal placidity that meant that the exquisite nothingness of uniformity had at last been achieved.

M. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS: Towards Perfection (2430)

1. Is this future probable? Explain.

2. Describe this society's view of perfection.

3. What ws the major problem of this society? As a member, would you support its policy of eliminating all unnecessary life? Why or why not?

4. Describe in your own words the general lifestyle of the people In view of the circumstances, do you consider this lifestyle the only alternative? Explain.

5. What did Cranwitz do in the end? What would you have done? Why?

6. Are there any trends today which reflect this attitude towards animal life? Explain.

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